For the government’s objective on carbon dioxide discharge cuts to be attained, air travel expansion in the UK should not surpass 60% by 2050, a number well below the estimated growth rate of 200% by the same timeline. The figures reported by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) also maintain a permissible increase in the volume of passengers from 230m in 2005 to 695m in 2050.
To meet the set targets, no further developments beyond the proposed expansions at Heathrow, Edinburgh and Stansted Airports would be allowed.
The report has forecasted that operational enhancements could account for a 30% cut in carbon dioxide discharges. An increase in carbon price to £200 per tCO2, together with restrictive airport development, could curtail the anticipated 200% increase to 115%. Rail travel and a greater practice of video conferencing by business travelers could slash flying demand by 10% and 30% respectively.
Despite all these measures, the figure of a mere 60% increase looks far-fetched and the CCC has stated that higher airfares might have to be deployed to restrict growth.
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